David Garrard may be one of the most polarizing figures in Jacksonville Jaguars history. Sure, the naysayers’ voices are often heard loudest, but there has still been a lot of support in favor of David Garrard as the Jaguars’ starting quarterback. Today I want to take a look at a few significant statistics that are solid measures of a quarterback’s performance. What statistics did I pick to look at? It can’t be quarterback rating. That’s a composite statistic that actually tells us very little. It can’t be yards. That’s too dependant on the offensive system employed. No none of those tell us much about the passer alone.
But there are stats that do just that.
I’m talking about one common stat, completion percentage, and two not so common stats, interception percentage of attempts and touchdown percentage of attempts. In short, those numbers tell us how often Garrard completes a pass, throws an interception, and throws a touchdown. Let’s look at the data.
For starters, let’s look at completion percentage. It’s the most common, and the easiest to digest. For simplicity, we’re looking at numbers since 2006, the first season Garrard saw a lot of playing time.
Laugh all you want, that graph is disturbingly erratic. Garrard’s completion percentage looks like mountain peaks and valleys, and that’s the reason that people call him inconsistent. Here’s the good news, David Garrard was, by and large, on his game in 2010. He posted his best completion percentage of his career*.
Now for the bad news. David Garrard is due for a valley in 2011. Sure, we’re just going on trends, but it is rather likely that his numbers will dip… some.
Next on tap are the fun percentages:
Again, let’s play a little good news, bad news. The good news is that Garrard’s percentage of touchdowns has always stayed above his percentage of interceptions. In simple terms, that means that David Garrard throws more touchdowns, and he has done so since becoming a starter, than he does interceptions. The other piece of good news is that Garrard’s TD percentage reached an all-time high in 2010.
Now for the bad news. Garrard’s interception percentage, along with TD percentage, jumped up in 2010. It didn’t just move up a little, it reached an all-time high. Garrard will have to be more efficient in 2011 to keep his job. In the past, he has responded well to competition, and I think that’s the idea in 2010.
Here’s our overview. Yes, David Garrard is inconsistent, but he’s not, by any stretch, a bad quarterback. I’m not really a big stats guy, but I think these three statistics show us a lot. Many quarterbacks throw more interceptions than touchdowns. I have a problem throwing Garrard under the bus. He’s a slightly above-average quarterback that struggles with consistency. That’s about it. I’ll let you read farther into the stats if you’d like, but I’ll leave it at that.
* = excluding years with less than 8 games played in